A new paper was published in Science China Earth Sciences journal on 19 March 2025, showing that Antarctica gained ice from 2021 to 2023 due to significant snowfall. Shortly after this paper was published, social media users cited this paper to post claims like ‘global warming is over’, ‘Antarctica’s ice loss trend has reversed’ or ‘sea-level rise is a lie’. One such post already has over 3 million views on X/Twitter, and another has 8 million views.
But with over two decades of recorded ice loss in Antarctica, and decades of data showing that the planet is warming[1] and that sea levels are rising[2], what do scientists think about a few years of ice gain in Antarctica?
To find out, Science Feedback contacted several climate scientists with relevant expertise – from sea-level rise to glaciology – and asked them for context about the recent paper and claims. We will share their insights below.
A few years of ice gain in Antarctica does not ‘overturn’ or ‘reverse’ the multi-decade trend of ice loss there, according to climate scientists
To understand ice loss in Antarctica, let’s first put its ice sheet into perspective. Antarctica is a continent with a surface area larger than the continental United States. Like other continents, its foundation is made of rocky terrain, but it is mostly covered with ice that is about 0.6 kilometers (1 mile) thick on average. This ice has accumulated over millions of years and, in total, holds roughly 60% of Earth’s freshwater.
Why is that perspective important? Gains and losses of ice on a continental scale – like in Antarctica – aren’t simple like a heat lamp melting an ice cube, or snow piling up then melting in your yard. There are more complex processes involved as the atmosphere, land, and ocean interact with each other. For this reason, looking solely at short-term ice gains and losses misses key parts of the story of Antarctica’s ice – one which shows over two decades of ice loss (Figure 1).
Figure 1 – Cumulative mass change of the Antarctic ice sheet – and its three main regions – and the corresponding sea-level rise contributions (in millimeters) from 1979 to 2023. Note that the ice gained from 2021 to 2023 is relatively small compared to the total ice lost over the last few decades. Source: Copernicus Climate Change Service – Climate Indicators
To learn more about what drives these ice changes and if the recent gains indicate a ‘reversal’ of Antarctica’s ice-loss trend, Science Feedback contacted Dr. Peter Neff, Assistant Professor at the University of Minnesota, who has conducted research on how snow accumulates and sea ice varies in Antarctica. Neff explained:
“No it [the paper] does not indicate a likely sustained reversal of the overall ice loss in Antarctica. Just like you can walk and chew gum at the same time, multiple processes can affect any system and lead to short or long-term change. The “mass balance” of the Antarctic ice sheet is controlled by how much snow falls in (depositing into the bank), then flows to the ocean at low elevations and melts as it comes into contact with the ocean and then also calves off icebergs from the floating glacier extensions called ice shelves (withdrawing from the bank). There is very little surface melting in Antarctica caused by the atmosphere (compared to a lot of this in Greenland).”
“No it [the paper] does not indicate a likely sustained reversal of the overall ice loss in Antarctica. Just like you can walk and chew gum at the same time, multiple processes can affect any system and lead to short or long-term change. The “mass balance” of the Antarctic ice sheet is controlled by how much snow falls in (depositing into the bank), then flows to the ocean at low elevations and melts as it comes into contact with the ocean and then also calves off icebergs from the floating glacier extensions called ice shelves (withdrawing from the bank). There is very little surface melting in Antarctica caused by the atmosphere (compared to a lot of this in Greenland).”
A well-written article